US Homebuyers Exit Market, Sellers Exceed Buyers by 51.3%, Buyer Count Hits Record Low

Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said US homebuyers are pulling back, with the seller surplus over buyers widening in July.

The Kobeissi Letter said in an X post on Sunday that sellers outnumbered buyers by about 51.3% in July, the second-highest gap on record. Active buyers fell 2.5% month-over-month to 966,752, a record low, while seller count declined 0.3% to about 1.46 million. The post noted that about 80% of major US metros have now become buyer's markets, warning of further downward pressure on home prices.

US homebuyers are exiting the market.

In July, sellers outnumbered buyers by about 51.3%, the second-highest level on record.

That ratio has doubled over the past two years.

By comparison, December 2025 marked a record high of 51.8%.

This comes as...

— The Kobeissi Letter, August 23, 2026

Buyer Count Hits Record Low

The Kobeissi Letter cited data from Redfin's analysis of July buyer and seller activity, which uses MLS data and Redfin proprietary data. The analysis estimated 966,752 active buyers in July, down 2.5% month-over-month, while seller count stood at about 1.46 million.

The 51.3% gap between sellers and buyers was the second-highest on record, trailing only the 51.8% gap recorded in December 2025.

The widening gap was driven more by a sharper decline in buyer numbers than a surge in sellers. Sellers fell only 0.3% month-over-month, compared with a 2.5% decline for buyers.

Redfin estimates buyer counts based on active listings and pending sales in MLS data, along with data on the typical time between a buyer's first home tour and purchase. Seller estimates are based on active MLS listings. These estimates are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.

Buyers Gain More Bargaining Power

According to Redfin's analysis, about 80% of major US metros were buyer's markets in July. A market is considered a buyer's market when sellers outnumber buyers by more than 10%.

Miami showed the most severe imbalance, with sellers outnumbering buyers by about 154%. Nashville followed at 151%, Houston at 130%, San Antonio at 116%, and Austin at 112%.

This shift gives buyers more room to negotiate on price and other terms, as sellers compete for a smaller pool of potential buyers.

Recent housing market trends already show increased buyer leverage. Homes are staying on the market longer, and sellers are increasingly offering concessions to attract buyers.

Mortgage Rates Keep Buyers on the Sidelines

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.75%, up from 6.69% the previous week.

According to the National Association of Realtors, pending home sales in July fell 2.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year, hitting the lowest level since January 2026.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, said in the association's report: "The highest mortgage rates of the year arrived in the middle of summer, which is pulling down contract signings."

The combination of high mortgage rates and elevated home prices makes it harder for potential buyers to afford homes, while a weaker labor market adds pressure on first-time buyers trying to save for down payments.

Downward Pressure on Home Prices

The widening gap between sellers and buyers does not guarantee a broad decline in US home prices. Housing conditions still vary significantly across different markets.

In July, six major US metros remained seller's markets, while 39 of the 49 metros analyzed by Redfin were buyer's markets. In seller's markets, average home sale prices rose 4.2% year-over-year, compared with a 2.3% increase in buyer's markets.

However, record-low active buyer counts and a growing seller surplus indicate weak demand across much of the housing market.