Are Banks Still Just Dividend Assets? Q2 Financial Data Offers a Different Answer

In the second quarter of 2026, several marginal changes in the banking sector merit attention. Data from the National Financial Regulatory Administration shows that the net interest margin of commercial banks rose to 1.41%, marking the first quarter-on-quarter rebound since Q4 2021, while profit growth at large state-owned banks turned positive simultaneously. Meanwhile, financial data for July released by the People's Bank of China shows a single-month negative growth in RMB loans, indicating that bank operations are gradually entering a phase of low balance sheet expansion. In an environment of declining liability costs, stabilizing earnings expectations, and low long-end interest rates, the investment logic for the banking sector is shifting from pure high dividends to a broader focus on ROE stability and easing valuation constraints—how long can this shift persist?