CITIC Securities: RMB Pricing Logic Restructured, 6.6-7.0 as Policy-Desired Range

CITIC Securities believes that the current RMB appreciation is by no means a mere "undervaluation correction," but a substantive shift in the pricing driver from "China-US interest rate differentials" to "trade surplus"! External concerns over US dollar credit provide a tailwind, while over $760 billion in unsettled foreign exchange receipts domestically serve as the strongest momentum. As the exchange rate approaches the corporate FX holding cost line, the surge in settlement willingness will steadily push the currency into the policy-desired range of 6.6-7.0, with the appreciation direction unchanged but the slope managed.