Goldman Sachs: Spotify Target Price $645, AI Value-Added Subscriptions to Boost ARPU

Goldman Sachs set a target price of $645 for Spotify (previously $655) in a research report dated October 15, 2026, implying approximately 23.1% upside from the current share price of $523.96, while maintaining a Buy rating.

The report projects third-quarter revenue of €4.964 billion, 305 million paying subscribers, and 788 million monthly active users; U.S. monthly active users grew 2% year-over-year, while international monthly active users grew 6% year-over-year. Goldman Sachs expects long-term Premium ARPU to grow at a mid-single-digit compound annual growth rate, approximately 6.6% from 2025 to 2030, and assesses that Spotify's monetization strategy has entered a third phase, shifting from pure price increases to a value-added subscription ecosystem (audiobooks, AI mixing, personalized podcasts, etc.), unlocking long-term ARPU upside. Sensor Tower data shows Spotify's third-quarter daily-to-monthly active user ratio stood at 0.54, the highest among audio streaming peers, supporting pricing power.

[TechFlow]