JPM: Nvidia October Guidance Seen at $107B; H200 China Shipments a Wildcard

JPMorgan noted in a report on August 24, 2026 that Nvidia's fiscal Q2 2027 (July quarter) revenue is expected to land between $94B and $95B, slightly above the consensus estimate of $92.1B. GB300 rack shipments are projected to grow roughly 15% quarter-over-quarter to 17,000–18,000 units. For the October quarter, guidance could reach $107B–$108B, about 3% above the consensus of $104.5B, driven by initial Vera Rubin shipments and the start of China H200 shipments.

JPMorgan estimates that every 100,000 H200 units shipped could generate roughly $3B in incremental revenue, and early customer deliveries of H200 in China are already showing signs of progress. At current prices, Nvidia trades at approximately 17x and 13x consensus EPS for calendar 2027 and 2028, respectively. JPMorgan reiterates an Overweight rating with a price target of $280, based on ~28x calendar 2026 exit annualized EPS of about $10. Key focus areas include China H200 shipment pace, HBM supply constraints, AI ASIC competition, and the durability of AI infrastructure spending.

[TechFlow]