US Treasury ETFs Surge Amid Tech Stock Selloff, 10-Year Yield Drops Below 5%

Long-dated US Treasury ETFs jumped nearly 2% on Thursday, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling below 5%. Despite elevated producer inflation, investors sought the safety of government bonds as tech stocks were sold off.

Long-Dated Treasury ETFs Rebound

According to market data, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF closed Thursday at $81.74, up 1.87%, while the Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Index Fund ETF Shares rose 1.77% to $52.39.

Based on the provided Treasury yield data, in the latest check on Friday, the 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.98%, while the 30-year yield was 5.30%. The 5-year yield was 4.80%.

The pullback in yields comes after a sharp rise in early autumn. The Kobeissi Letter said Thursday that the 10-year yield had fallen to 5%, "the first time since September 23, as the tech selloff deepens."

Kobeissi also noted that he turned bullish on TLT on October 2 when the 10-year US Treasury yield hit 5.30%, and that the ETF was approaching its $82 target price on Thursday.

BREAKING: The US 10-year Treasury yield falls to 5.00% for the first time since September 23 as the tech selloff deepens.

— The Kobeissi Letter, October 22, 2026

Investors Rotate into US Treasuries

Martin Pelletier, an investment manager at TriVest Wealth, said investors have been rotating into US Treasuries while reducing exposure to gold.

"Over the past month, investors have rotated into US Treasuries and sold gold $GLD," Pelletier wrote Thursday.

Over the past month, investors have rotated into US Treasuries and sold gold $GLD. Crazy how real yields are falling while gold and gold stocks are getting hammered. Will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Since October: $TLT +5% $GLD -3%

— Martin Pelletier, October 22, 2026

Elevated PPI Keeps Inflation Pressures in Focus

The Treasury rebound comes despite producer inflation remaining elevated. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics said the final-demand Producer Price Index rose 1.3% in September, up 6.3% year-over-year, the largest 12-month increase since December 2022.

Higher-than-expected producer inflation could reinforce market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, putting upward pressure on Treasury yields.

The Fed raised its target rate range by 25 basis points in September to 3.75% to 4%, stating at the time that "inflation remains elevated." The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27-28.

How Are Short- and Long-Dated Bond ETFs Performing?

ETF1 Month6 MonthsYTD1 Year5 Years

TLT-0.01%-5.76%-6.97%-11.21%-43.49%

VGLT-0.04%-5.5%-6.11%-10.26%-40.04%

Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF0.14%-2.01%-2.56%-2.96%-5.61%

iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF0.25%-1.21%-1.61%-1.92%-5.02%