What Is the Fed's "Dashboard" Watching?

Guolian Minsheng Macro believes that the sharp rise in long-term U.S. rates in July stems from a divergence between the market and the Fed's "dashboard" indicator system. Internally, the "look-through faction," "rule-based faction," and "productivity framework faction" each rely on different metrics such as trimmed-mean PCE, core PCE, and unit labor costs. Warsh's reforms push the dashboard toward "real-time, high-frequency" data, but the final report is due only at year-end, leaving the old paradigm's tug-of-war to persist within the year. In September's seesaw, the market will "substitute" for Fed tightening, and the pressure from a steeper long-end curve will be hard to shake off.